Wednesday, September 25, 2019

NFL Season 100! Week 4 Predictions: Can the Cowboys keep it up in New Orleans?

Eight teams remain without a loss on their record after three weeks. We get some games this week between a few of them, as the Patriots visit their AFC East rival in Buffalo and Mahomes and the Chiefs make a stop up in Detroit to take on the 2-0-1 Lions. The game I look forward to most though is our Sunday Night Football game between the Cowboys and Saints. Dak has looked like a beast and may be in the fight with Mahomes for the MVP award. But look at who Dallas has faced this year. The Giants with Manning taking the snaps, the Redskins who have allowed 31+ points in each game this season, and then the Dolphins. No explanation needed on that one. So now Dallas will get their first real test in my opinion. Brees is out, but Bridgewater looked rather good against Seattle. The real battle will be Kamara against the Cowboys defense. If Dallas can shut him down, the Cowboys should keep their undefeated record and leave New Orleans with the win. Otherwise I expect an offensive battle, as New Orleans has allowed at least 27 points in each game this year. Dallas is already being talked about as Super Bowl contenders, I look forward to seeing if they can prove it Sunday night. Here are the predictions for each game and who/how you should bet on this coming week.
Week 3 Records:               Seasonal Record/Percentages:
Tommy 11-5                       Tommy 29-18 62%
Lauren 10-6                        Lauren 32-15 68%
Marcus 11-5                       Marcus 30-17 64%
Joe 8-8                               Joe 29-18 62%

ATS (Against the Spread) & ML (Money Line)

1-2 Philadelphia Eagles (+4,+180) vs 3-0 Green Bay Packers (-4,-220)

Tommy: Packers ML
The Eagles defense has not impressed me this year, especially in the secondary. 24 points in the lowest amount they have given up this year and it still resulted in a loss. The Packers defense has been really strong, as they have pressured the QB more than anyone else. Rodgers just needs to get his game going and that should happen soon. The Eagles may be able to keep it close, but the Packers will take this with a good mixture of pass and run game.
Lauren: Packers ATS
The Eagles lost a hard-fought game against the Lions last week. Their OL is decimated and their receivers are hearing it from their owns fans about how they cannot hold onto the ball. The Packers are on top of the world after a dominating win against the Broncos where their defense got six sacks. Green Bay's OL also had a good game and Aaron Rodgers is loving it. Given enough time to work, he and his offense should come out of this game winners.
Marcus: Packer ML
The Eagles have some injury problems and their O-line can’t block anyone. Green Bay has a strong defensive unit and Rodgers can pick apart the Eagles secondary.
Joe: Packers ML

The Eagles are the most disappointing team in the league. Yep, that includes teams that are 0-3. In some years, losing to the Detroit Lions at home meant your season was over. But that was way back when players and teams had pride. The Packers are playing their second Thursday night game in four weeks. What the hell. Look at the schedule for the Packers and Patriots. This season was set up so these two would meet in the Super Bowl.

1-2 Tennessee Titans (+4,+175) vs 1-2 Falcons (-4,-210)

Tommy: Falcons ATS
Atlanta has a strong run defense, averaging only 3.6 yards gained for each rush attempt on the season. That is one of the best in the league and where is the Titans strength, Derrick Henry. If Atlanta can shut him down like the Jaguars did, then a couple plays to Jones and Sanu will get the Falcons the W.
Lauren: Falcons ML
Tennessee got their asses handed to them by a rookie QB and the Sacksonville defense. Atlanta lost too, but their game was much closer. I heard that the Falcons are a completely different team at home and they seem to have proved that theory against the Eagles. So, let's see if they prove it again this week against the Titans.
Marcus: Falcons ML/Under
You never know what Falcons team is going to show up on Sunday. The Titans have their own issues at QB . But I like the Dirty Birds to win this one at home.
Joe: Falcons ATS
Oh Jesus, Titans. I'm not in any way a fan of your team, yet you infuriate me. Remember when you beat the Browns by 30 in Cleveland like 2.5 weeks ago? Horseshit. Falcons, you suck too. Four straight dome games to start the season. Yet none of them played with any consistency. I am boycotting this game and these two teams until further notice.

3-0 New England Patriots (-7,-320) vs 3-0 Buffalo Bills (+7,+260)

Tommy: Patriots ATS
Ok so the Bills look good with their 3-0 record, but they have played the Jets, Giants, and Bengals. Now they get to take on their real opponent. The Pats may have gotten a couple guys dinged up last week, but Brady seems to always find a way. Brady will find Gordon and Dorsett for a couple TDs and take it by at least 10.
Lauren: Patriots ML
Who would have thought the Buffalo Bills would be 3-0? Their offense looks really good with Allen leading them. We all knew the Pats would be 3-0 and I don't think anyone will be surprised to see them walk away from Buffalo with a 4-0 record. This time however I think the Bills hold the Patriots to a single-digit win.
Marcus: Bills ATS
The Bills circle the wagons and keep it close against the Pats. I like the Patriots to win but the Bills will continue to surprise this week.
Joe: Patriots ATS
I don't think Tom Brady has ever lost in Buffalo. I'm not going to look it up. Just trying to think of a time he has and I can't. And he usually wins big there. Bills, worst 3-0 team of all time. It's a fact until someone does the research and finds one that was worse. They were lucky to beat the winless Jets, they beat Eli Manning and they were lucky to beat the winless Bengals. Don't tell me a win's a win. Such a dumb cliche.

3-0 Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5,-270) vs 2-0-1 Detroit Lions (+6.5,+230)

Tommy: Chiefs ML/Over
Those Lions are looking a lot better than I thought they would, Stafford just seems to find his guys in the endzone each time he needs to with as they remain undefeated. But they still won't be able to beat Mahomes. I expect the Lions to keep it close though at home, as they face another undefeated team this late int he year for the first time since 1962. You may see that over cautious, but that's why I got KC money line.
Lauren: Chiefs ATS/Over
Patrick Mahomes proved to be the better of the superstar QBs against Baltimore. The guy amazes me with his bazooka arm. Detroit keeps pulling out wins in unexpected places. Stafford also has a cannon on his shoulder so don't be surprised if this game has a record of combined passing yards. This is going to be one hell of a shootout.
Marcus: Lions ATS
NFL’s surprise team continues its hot start at KC. I know that Mahomes and that offense can pick any one apart but the Lions have been playing with swagger and have a good defensive unit. Lions to roar back and keep this one close.
Joe: Chiefs ATS
Lauren and Tommy did it, but they correctly picked the Lions to win on the road in Philadelphia Will the Chiefs clinch the AFC West by week 10? Not even kidding. And I don't know how last week. It was a prediction that was so good that it makes me suspicious. I've got my eyes on you two. Oh yeah, the Lions get beat up this week.

1-2 Oakland Raiders (+7,+260) vs 2-1 Indianapolis Colts (-7,-320)

Tommy: Colts ML/Over
The Colts offense is looking good and Brissett is passing expectations. The Raiders looked good in Week 1, but have tanked since. Their pass defense has been pathetic and Brissett is going to expose that.
Lauren: Colts ATS
Boy Oakland does not look good. Their defense seems to like giving away touchdowns. Indy looks better than anyone expected after losing Andrew Luck. They might be without TY Hilton next week though and they will definitely be without Malik Hooker, a huge piece of their defense. Against the Raiders though, I'm not too worried.
Marcus: Colts ML
The Raiders look in disarray while Indy is playing surprisingly well without Andrew Luck. Well I guess it helps that Brissett was Brady’s backup. I like the Colts to win against Oakland.
Joe: Raiders ATS
The Raiders are bad but I don't think they are typical Raiders bad. Which means that I think people will overvalue the Colts this week because they are 2-1 and playing a "bad" team at home. But all the Colts have really shown in the first three weeks is that they are good at playing close games. Why would this be any different?

1-2 Los Angeles Chargers (-16,-1200) vs 0-3 Miami Dolphins (+16,+750)

Tommy: Chargers ATS
That spread may be large, but let's face it Miami isn't trying. Rivers will have a breakout game, as the Chargers win by 20+ points. I'd add the over as well, but Miami may only score 3 points.
Lauren: Chargers ATS
Listen, Miami clearly isn't getting any better so picking winners should be easy. They also cannot get into the endzone so taking winners with their spread is also easy. The Chargers' passing and running games are superb. Keenan Allen is getting all the love, as is Austin Ekeler. Should be no contest in South Beach.
Marcus: Dolphins ATS
Miami really? LAC offensive looks anemic and Rivers is having trouble finding a consistent offensive rhythm. Even though I think Dolphins will be lucky to win a game, they will cover the spread in this matchup.
Joe: Chargers ML
Some of these deserve to be kept brief. To anyone who picked the Chargers to go to the Super Bowl and thought Rivers would be an MVP candidate, wow. Dolphins, thanks for covering in the first half last week.

0-3 Washington Redskins (+3,+130) vs 1-2 New York Giants (-3,-150)

Tommy: Giants ML/Under
Case Keenum has been impressive with his yard totals, but not when it comes to turnovers. Washington will need to avoid giving the ball over so much if they want to get their first win. Daniel Jones impressed us, as he hit his targets and ran for clutch gains. He will bring his team's first win at home even without Barkley.
Lauren: Giants ML
Eli Manning has lost his job. Any doubt of that was erased after Daniel Jones ran for his first rushing touchdown. Eli could never run. Not to mention that kid put up 32 points. The Redskins looked just awful against the Bears. Now, the Giants' defense is not the Bears', but after turning the ball over so much I don't think the Redskins will be able to keep Jones in check.
Marcus: Giants ATS/Over
The Redskins look abysmal and have lost their fan base. They are a team with a bleak future while the Giants may have found their QB of the future. I like another big game for the rookie QB.
Joe: Giants ATS
My. God. Two teams that can easily cause T-Bomb's Blog Writer's Block. Dear Redskins, 2006 called, they want prime Vernon Davis and Adrian Peterson back. Do I want to talk about Daniel Jones Mania? No, I do not. Because it's about to get a lot worse after he wins two in a row.

1-2 Cleveland Browns (+7,-260) vs 2-1 Baltimore Ravens (-7,-320)

Tommy: Browns ATS
I still think the Ravens will win this one, but I expect Mayfield and the Browns to put a good fight against their divisional foe. They really need a win and won't let the Ravens cover, but still will come up short due to Jackson's run game. Garrett will apply good pressure, but those penalties follow him everywhere meaning the Ravens win by 3-4 points.
Lauren: Ravens ML
Baker Mayfield and the Browns desperately need another win, The QB has come out and told his critics not to panic yet, but it seems clear that the Browns cannot pull out wins against all-star defenses. Baltimore is an all-star defense AND an all-star offense. Lamar Jackson, his receivers, and Mark Ingram could certainly manhandle the Browns, but Cleveland's defense has shown itself capable and I think will be able to hold the Ravens to a close game.
Marcus: Browns ATS
Browns o-line looks terrible, Baker Mayfield doesn’t have the vision and I feel that this Browns team is another year or two away from really coming around. The Ravens hung around with the Chiefs last week and Jackson looks like the real deal Holyfield. I pick the Ravens winning big against the Brownies.
Joe: Ravens ATS
Welcome to a segment I call: "Predicting What the Other Bloggers Will Write for this Game." Tops on the list: Something about this being a match up of the top two rookie QBs from last season. Second, someone will state that the current Cleveland Browns are playing the team that used to be the Cleveland Browns before bailing and moving the team in the middle of the night. Lastly, someone will question whether or not it was wise for the Browns to draft Baker Mayfield before Lamar Jackson after how they've both started this season.

1-2 Carolina Panthers (+5,+180) vs 2-1 Houston Texans (-5,-220)

Tommy: Panthers ATS
Kyle Allen has locked the job down for at least another week. He looked good in his appearance with four TD passes. I really like Watson and Hopkins, but they have not blown anyone out like I thought they would and I think the spread is too big for them to cover. Houston could still get the W, but I got CAR with that spread.
Lauren: Texans ML
Kyle Allen over Cam Newton. I will fight for it the rest of the season. He looked so much better than Cam last week. McCaffrey may have a tough time this week against the Texans D-line, but Allen can pass unlike Newton. Watson seems to be able to eke out wins with clutch passes and I think this week will be more of the same depending on which Carolina defense decides to show up.
Marcus: Texans ATS
Kyle Allen may have had himself a nice game last week against the Cardinals but DeShaun Watson is a better QB. The Texans Defense will tear through the Panthers offense and keep the running attack at bay.
Joe: Texans ML
How about that Kyle Allen? Who? Yeah, I don't know either. I'm going to say that last week was probably a fluke. But they are playing the Texans, who could find a way to win or lose by only one possession to UNLV.

1-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5,+350), vs 3-0 Los Angeles Rams (-9.5,-450)

Tommy: Rams ML
The Rams are off to a better start than many expected. Usually when you lose that Super Bowl you have a bit of a rough start next year, but they are 3-0. The Bucs on the other hand must be down right now coming off such a tough loss on the missed field goal. The Rams will continue to 4-0 and may cover that large spread as well.
Lauren: Rams ML
Tampa Bay is a weird team this year. In games that I expect them to be slaughtered, they either win or keep it much closer. In games I expect them to keep close, they cannot pull themselves together. I would expect the Rams to be able to beat them by 21 points, so I can only assume the Bucs will be able to somehow keep the score within 7.
Marcus: Buccaneers ATS
We all know that the Rams can put up the offensive numbers but can the Bucs? I see a lot of offense in this matchup, the Bucs can air out the ball and will do so this Sunday.
Joe: Buccaneers ATS
Damn it. I knew Jameis and Tampa were going to do that against the Giants. I just couldn't pick the G-Men for a third straight week. And if you read this blog at all last season, you may recall that I have a friend who is a Rams fan. Let's call him IRF ("Idiot Rams Fan") from here on out. Not a lot to report on IRF after his team's quiet 3-0 start. But wait until this week after this complete scare game that the Rams might lose. BTW, when the Rams lost 13-3 to the Raiders in preseason (Same score as the Super Bowl), I called IRF just to taunt him.

1-2 Seattle Seahawks (-5,-230) vs 0-2-1 Arizona Cardinals (+5,+190)

Tommy: Seahawks ML
I want to see Murray get his first win! They just can't seem to come up with that clutch third down stop, or reach field goal position to get the game winner. Instead they can't help but have those late turnovers that lock the game away for the opposing team. Wilson put up over 400 yards passing last week, while the Cardinals didn't even have 250 total yards on offense. So though the Cardinals may prevent Seattle from covering the spread, Wilson will make sure he team doesn't drop a second game in a row.
Lauren: Seahawks ATS
I think the rest of the NFL has figured out how to play in Seattle. The Bengals somehow kept the Seahawks from killing them. The Saints absolutely murdered them in their own stadium. So, part of my prediction of the Seahawks winning is that they will be in enemy territory. The other is that the Cardinals cannot seem to win. They can make it a good game, but they seem to trip at the finish line.
Marcus: Seahawks ATS
I see this as a bounce back week for Seattle, after mishandling the game last week. They will have learned from their turnovers and mistakes to take it to the rookie Murray.
Joe: Cardinals ATS
I got you, Seattle. I've seen you for who you really are this whole time  And just when everyone started believing in you and the 12th man crap. Again, it's no longer 2013, sports fans. THE SEAHAWKS ARE NOT ANY GOOD. Speaking of not any good, nice game last week, Cardinals. Even in 2013, I cannot recall a time in which Russell Wilson has played well at Arizona. I even saw these two teams once play to a 6-6 tie on Sunday Night Football. Skip this afternoon game and take a nap.

2-1 Minnesota Vikings (+3,+115) vs 2-1 Chicago Bears (-3,-135)

Tommy: Vikings ATS
The Bears finally showed us they can score!!! But that was against the Redskins. Now they get to meet another great defense in Minnesota. We saw they couldn't do anything against Green Bay's. I bet they run into similar issues against this NFC North rival. Trubisky is reminding me of what we were seeing from Newton this year. Just overthrowing and missing open targets costing them the game.
Lauren: Vikings ATS/Under
Both of these teams have elite defenses. Therefore, the under prediction. Minnesota has the superior offense compared to the Bears. Thielen and Diggs make Cousins look better than he is, but he's still better than Trubisky. The running game of both teams is also equal between Montgomery and Cook. I think Cook will be held in check against the Bears' DL though, so look for Cousins tog o to the air game a lot.
Marcus: Bears ATS
A low scoring affair with 2 strong defensive teams, the Vikes easily handled the Raiders last week. And I mean anyone playing the Skins looks good but the Bears defensive unit is their strong point. I expect a close game with a last second score to decide this one.
Joe: Bears ATS
To those of you not from Minnesota, consider this little nugget I'm about to give you a gift from me to you. The Vikings do not win in Chicago. You're going to look at this line and wonder how the Bears are favored. You're going to want to jump on the moneyline after we dismantled the Raiders last week. Don't fall into the trap. The Vikings have made Jay Cutler, Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton and God knows who else the Bears have had under center at that time (Caleb Hanie maybe) look like Hall of Famers at Soldier Field. Also, two central time zone teams playing in the afternoon on Sunday. Dumb.

1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars (+3,+150) vs 0-3 Denver Broncos (-3,-170)

Tommy: Jaguars ML
I can't believe the Broncos are favored in this one. Flacco never seems to let go of the ball unless he is getting sacked and is turning it over, while Minshew is the new face of the team and has a bunch of support behind him. Flacco won't be able to find his targets with the Jags defense and Lindsay won't be able to do it all. So take the money line and get the good payout on this one.
Lauren: Jaguars ATS
It seems Vic Fangio is better suited to be up in the booth to run the defense of the Broncos. The views down on the sidelines are clearly messing with his strategy. Flacco needs to throw the ball. I feel like he holds the ball way to long for anyone's good. Minshew is the new hero in Jacksonville and proved his worth. His passing game should be no match for the weakened Broncos defense.
Marcus: Jaguars ATS
Minshew Mania is taking over the NFL and he was at his alma mater this past weekend. Too bad he was on hand to see Wazzu coug it up. I digress, but the Jags have a strong defensive unit and will look to attack Flacco whenever they can. Flacco beware!
Joe: Jaguars ML
So, I'm mad that Gardner Minshew is the new Jeremy Lin. And it's because I was on that train one week before everyone else. Loved the guy as soon as I saw him play after Foles went down. Yet now everyone does and that's annoying. Also, let me just say this: I hate it when teams who have not won are favored to win, something they have yet to do, against a team that has actually won. The stubborn side of me will not accept that type of illogical behavior.

3-0 Dallas Cowboys (-3,-145) vs 2-1 New Orleans Saints (+3,+125)

Tommy: Saints ATS/ Over
Those Cowboys sure are confident right now, but I bet they are caught off guard and will need to rethink their approach in the second half. Kamara just bounces off anyone to keep the play going and he is the life of that offense right now. If Bridgewater and the Saints continue to throw quick short passes and let their guys use their speed to dodge and outrun the Cowboys' defense, then New Orleans should slip away in a large scoring close match.
Lauren: Saints ML/Over
This is the toughest game to decide this week. Dallas has looked like a Super Bowl contender, but has not faced a team that could test their game. The Saints beat Seattle in Seattle without Brees, making it seem like they will be just fine, but was it a fluke? Will the Saints' defense be able tog et to Dak through that OL? The Cowboys will be in hostile territory and face quite a good offense, but will New Orleans' fans come through and help?
Marcus: Cowboys ATS
The Cowboys defensive unit is stronger than Seattle’s. The Seahawks didn’t fare so well against the Saints D-Unit. Dallas has a stronger unit and better run stoppers. I like the Cowboys to win big and Dak will be recorded again talking about his post game snacks.
Joe: Saints ML
Football season is not fun when there is no "Fire Jason Garrett" talk after he loses one game. And Lauren, no more talk of Dak Prescott and his extension until they actually play someone. The Saints are far less hateable when Teddy Bridgewater is their QB. And that makes me kind of mad. But here I am about to be the only one that picks them for the second straight week.

0-3 Cincinnati Bengals (+4,+180) vs 0-3 Pittsburgh Steelers (-4,-210)

Tommy: Steelers ML
James Conner has not been much of a difference maker on the year, trust me my fantasy team is suffering. Mason Rudolph will need to get him the ball and have him expose that 31st ranked rush defense of the Bengals to get the Steelers their first win of the year at home. They need to control the clock by running the ball and keep the Bengals offense off the field.
Lauren: Steelers ATS
What a sad Monday night game. Two 0-3 teams that can play, but cannot win. Mason Rudolph seems like a decent replacement for Big Ben and I think he and the Steelers' offense will put up some good points. The Bengals are playing some games better than expected and their defense can sometimes come through, but they have not faced Rudolph and the Steelers defense with Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Marcus: Bengals ATS
The Bengals play better on the road and have a surprisingly good ATS record while on the road. The Steelers are going to play better after a tough loss last week to Santa Clara. I see a lot of offensive and points in this matchup.
Joe: Steelers ML
BARF!!!! And I didn't think it could get worse than Bears - Redskins on Monday night. Things I would rather do than watch this 0-3 shit vs. 0-3 shit: make a kale salad, start reading the book "Eat, Pray, Love" or watch the Point Break reboot from a few years ago. Also, I have picked both of these teams to win two out of the three weeks. Tie???

Bye: New York Jets & San Francisco 49ers

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