Wednesday, October 30, 2019

NFL Season 100!! Week 9 predictions: Brady vs. Jackson, can Lamar slip through the Pats defense?

We are right around the half way mark of the season, the trade deadline just passed and the battles for playoff spots will only intensify. We are coming off a week full of large spreads and some big blowouts, as six games with at least a two touchdown differential. But this week things change a bit, as only a few games are expected to end more than a six point differential. This should be a fun week, as we have a lot of games between two teams looking to stay in the playoff hunt. The Colts are making a stop in Pittsburgh, while the Bears meet the Eagles, the Titans take on the Panthers, and the Lions head west to meet the Raiders. The game I am looking forward to most though, is Brady and the undefeated Patriots visiting Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Jackson has looked unstoppable, running and passing the ball, making that top play list on ESPN over and over again. Now he gets to face that Patriots defense that would have the team above a .500 record even if Brady and the offense had never stepped on the field this year. That Sunday Night Football game will be really entertaining, as the Patriots will have a good challenge to stay undefeated. It is their first game against a QB that can possibly beat their defense, as they get to face Wentz, Prescott, Watson, and hopefully Mahomes all in a row after this. Belichick has taken his team to beat a first or second year QB 21 straight times though, we will see if he can keep that going. I went 12-3 last week and have a 77-43-1 record on the year. Here are the Week 9 predictions and who you may want to make a wager on this weekend.
Thursday, Oct. 31st @ 8:20 PM ET

7-0 San Francisco 49ers (-9.5, -475) vs. 3-4-1 Arizona Cardinals (+9.5, +375)

That 49ers defense is amazing. Nick Bosa has brought so much life to that team and I love his celebrations. If I had those Locks and Upsets of the week, this would be my Lock. Murray is going to have a tough time finding a space against Ford and Bosa, while the 49ers run game will destroy that Cardinals defense. If you want to make a quick buck on Thursday while out having some drinks, taking the 49ers will help you cover the night at the casino.
Prediction: 49ers 30-17
Sunday, Nov. 3rd @ 9:30 AM ET

5-3 Houston Texans (-2, -135) vs. 4-4 Jacksonville Jaguars (+2, +115)

The Jaguars are back in London, as they should see a good amount of Jags jerseys with the amount of trips they take to the UK. They get to face off against their division rival, as they look to even the records with the Texans looking as an AFC South with no one under .500 on the year. Though they have won two games in a row, missing Ramsey may cost them with the Watson-Hopkins match that has been bringing Houston a lot of points. Watt may be out, but the Houston defense will keep Minshew quiet enough for the win. A close one, but -2 shouldn't be to much to cover.
Prediction: Texans 27-23
Sunday, Nov. 3rd @ 1:00 PM ET

1-7 Washington Redskins (+10, +380) vs. 5-2 Buffalo Bills (-10, -480)

I want to consider the Bills to be real AFC playoff contenders, but they just don't seem to be a clutch team coming away with too many field goals instead of TDs. Their offense shouldn't have many issues this week though, as the Redskins defense has not looked very good this year. Allen may be able to convince more people, as long as he can find Brown or Gore for the six point play instead of settling for three. It will be a good game at first, but the Bills defense will not let the Redskins make enough of an impact to stay in the game.
Prediction: Bills 20-10 

6-2 Minnesota Vikings (-1, -120) vs. 5-3 Kansas City Chiefs (+1, +100)

So you can't go off those betting lines right now with Mahomes availability still up in the air. But after watching Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams score all the TDs and have their way against the KC defense, I can't imagine what Dalvin Cook is about to do. We will be saying "Cousins who" again. The Vikings defense will leave it all up to the Chiefs pass game and if Mahomes isn't there the Chiefs wont have a chance. With Mahomes out, we will see a 31-13 type final but I will make my prediction as if he is going to play this week.
Prediction: Vikings 31-27 

1-6 New York Jets (-3, -150) vs. 0-7 Miami Dolphins (+3, +150)

Gase wants his revenge against Miami. Though the Jets have looked rather sad on offense, it is time for Darnold to suck it up and be there for his coach and team. Fitzpatrick has looked good, they just can't stay in the game against anyone. We will see which defense can step it up more, as turnovers will decide this game. We saw Miami hand it over four times on Monday Football, I expect them to continue to play sloppy ball and give the Jets the win late in the game. I really hope it comes down to the Dolphins vs. Bengals game to decide who gets a win first.
Prediction: Jets 20-18

3-4 Chicago Bears (+5, +195) vs. 4-4 Philadelphia Eagles (-5, -235)

Both of these teams are not liking their current spot in the standings. The Bears are looking up at all three teams in their division, while the Eagles secondary can't seem to stop anyone, leading to the Cowboys seat at the top of the NFC East. Both teams do well to stop the run game, as Howard gets to rush against his former team this week. The big difference in this one though is the pass game. Wentz is a QB I feel I can trust as long as he get enough protection. Trubisky is a different story, the guy doesn't seem to have his game right now and needs his defense to step up to keep him in this one. I still can't believe he went before Mahomes and Watson in the draft in 2017. Defenses will keep it close, but I have to take Philly's offense over Chicago's.
Prediction: Eagles 23-20

5-2 Indianapolis Colts (-1, -120) vs. 3-4 Pittsburgh Steelers (+1, +100)

The Colts look to hold the AFC South lead, while the Steelers want to get back to an even record. The big difference in this game though is the QBs. Brissett has done well with the ball this season and has hit his targets, while we saw Rudolph throw it up into the air and end up in Dolphins arms a few times on Monday Night. In what is expected to be a close one, that late turnover will be the difference and I trust the Colts to take better care of that ball. Plus Conner left the game late, hopefully he can play for the Steelers, but his health also gives me a doubt towards Pittsburgh.
Prediction: Colts 21-17

4-4 Tennessee Titans (+4, +180) vs. 4-3 Carolina Panthers (-4, -210)

This is a game both of these teams need. The Panthers are watching the Saints take off with the division and are coming off a really tough loss against the current NFC leader. While the Titans play in the only division that has no one with negative records and want to catch the Texans and Colts in the standings. Both these teams have good running backs, with McCaffrey and Henry running the ball, but who do you trust more taking the snaps, Tannehill or Allen? Both teams will bring the pressure, as I expect a defensive close game. I would take the money line with Carolina, as the Titans have kept most games close.
Prediction: Panthers 17-14
Sunday, Nov. 3rd @ 4:05-4:25 PM ET

3-3-1 Detroit Lions (+2, +110) vs. 3-4 Oakland Raiders (-2, -130)

You have two very similar teams here. Both have offenses that can make a difference and defenses that can be beaten. Which team is the one to trust? Well the Raiders are home..finally! They have not actually played in Oakland since Week 2 on September 15th. I was there and that feels like a good while ago when Mahomes destroyed their secondary. Now its Stafford's turn, as he will find Marvin Jones right there in the corner again for s big play or two. Carr has his weapons, especially in the run game and that great tight-end of his. But I think Stafford is more consistent and will be more motivated looking at the 7-1 and 6-2 records of his division rivals. My upset pick of the week, so that +110 money line bet looks good to me.
Prediction: Lions 33-27

2-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5, +240) vs. 6-2 Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, -260)

These two teams have looked similar in the pass game. Winston has his to big targets with Godwin and Evans, while Wilson has handled the ball better and not turned it over 3-4 times. Seattle has the edge in the run game, but that Buccaneers defense has stopped the run well. The difference is this game will be Wilson's ability to avoid pressure and make a play out of tough situations, while Winston will have a rough time against the pressure leading to turnovers. The Seahawks have shown us they can bring it this season and will do what can to avoid falling behind the 49ers farther. Seahawks win but don't cover.
Prediction: Seahawks 34-28

2-5 Cleveland Browns (-3, -170) vs. 2-6 Denver Broncos (+3, +150)

So no Flacco over an injury I call BS. The team just didn't like his comments after their loss to the Colts. While Cleveland has dropped four in a row, but that was against the Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, and Patriots so you can't act to surprised. It is now the Browns time to shine though, their defense should have some fun and force some turnovers. Mayfield would really appreciate some drives starting in Denver territory and I bet his defense will do that for him once or twice. The key is limiting those penalties. They can't have that pick-6 then watch it get called back, that is getting way to old for those Browns fans. A defensive match, but the Browns take it late, as if that isn't new for Denver anyway.
Prediction: Browns 15-13 

7-1 Green Bay Packers (-3, -175) vs. 3-5 Los Angeles Chargers (+3, +155)

Green Bay's offense has exploded these past couple weeks and that has been without their main WR. Still uncertain if Adams will be back for Rodgers to throw to, but he keeps finding a way to win without him. Aaron Jones leads the NFL in TDs with 11, as he was the big piece to beat Dallas and KC, while Rodgers found Lazard and other targets to overcome the Raiders. The Chargers on the other hand have looked terrible on offense. Rivers has little protection and those Smith boys will be coming for him. The game may be in LA, but you will see more Packers fans in the stands. Packers win and cover, a -3 shouldn't be to hard to beat with or without Adams, as the Packers look to finish the sweep of the AFC West.
Prediction: Packers 27-20
Sunday, Nov. 3rd @ 8:20 PM ET

8-0 New England Patriots (-3.5, -185) vs. 5-2 Baltimore Ravens (+3.5, +165)

This game will be a blast, either Jackson will show us this Patriots defense can be beaten or we will see him get trapped behind the line over and over again leading to an early decided game. If Jackson comes out on top, he will be able to give the doubters a good lecture in the postgame interview and the focus will be on him for a good while. But I bet that Patriots defense finds a way to take away his comfortability and make him throw the ball more than he is used to on those 3rd down plays. That will lead to a game controlled by Brady and the Patriots offense. They will focus to keep Jackson off the field leading to their win. A close one, but that -185 money line looks good.
Prediction: Patriots 27-24
Monday, Nov. 4th @ 8:15 PM ET

4-3 Dallas Cowboys (-7, -350) vs. 2-6 New York Giants (+7, +290)

Dallas is headed back to MetLife Stadium, where they had a tough loss to the Jets who celebrated their one and only win on the year still. But the Cowboys had their injury issues then and are now coming off the bye looking healthy. The Cowboys offense will embarrass the Giants defense, as Dak and Zeke are rested and ready to get back on top yardage lists. The Cowboys will wrap up their sweep of the Giants on the year, as betting that 7 point spread should bring home a good profit on Monday Night.
Prediction: Cowboys 34-20
Bye week teams: New Orleans Saints, Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, & Los Angeles Rams
-Tom Franich

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